The "Disorder" Of Battle: Entropy-Based Warfare Modeling

The "Disorder" Of Battle: Entropy-Based Warfare Modeling

Creating disorder is still a highly effective strategy in modern warfare and today's military leaders can simulate combat situations and use entropy models as the basis for making decisions.


During the American Revolution, General Greene conducted a mobile warfare campaign designed to disperse and disrupt the cohesive operations of British forces. Although Greene did not win a single victory, his maneuvers successfully disorganized and demoralized British forces to the point where they gave up the Carolinas.

According to a WTB Officer Mark Herman, General Greene manipulated the factors of force, space, and time to raise the entropy level of British forces and achieve his military objectives.

'Entropy is a measure of disorder,' says Herman. 'In warfare, entropy measures how many people are doing what they should be doing. If the enemy manages to create enough disorder within a unit—so that people can no longer perform their functions—then the unit will act more like a mob than a well-trained, organized force.'



Creating disorder is still a highly effective strategy in modern warfare. But while General Greene had no way to predict the consequences of his actions, today's military leaders can simulate combat situations and use these models as the basis for making decisions.

At the recent International Conference on Gaming Warfare in Italy, Herman presented his paper, "Entropy-Based Warfare: A Unified Theory for Modeling the Revolution in Military Affairs." In the paper, he states that, for simulating warfare in today's information-dependent environment, measuring the disorder one side can cause the other is more important than measuring attrition, or the amount of physical destruction one side can inflict upon the other.

'Today we are experiencing a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) generated by computer information networks and precision weapons with sensors and microchips that need information to work,' says Herman. 'Because attrition-based models do not take into account many critical factors that impact combat outcome today, such as the ability to move information around quickly, we need a better way to evaluate combat. Entropy-based warfare models provide that alternative.'

Traditional attrition-based simulation models were developed before World War I when naval warfare was envisioned as a duel between battleship lines. With the advent of computer networks, the ways in which decisions are made and information is transferred have created new alternatives for waging war. In addition to combat on land, at sea, and in the air, cyberspace is the new arena for combat.

Entropy-based warfare models take into account factors critical to military leaders who must make decisions about buying equipment and deploying forces for future battle. 'Our ability to measure all dimensions of warfare will enable alternative concepts to evolve,' says Herman. 'By providing an understanding of how new technologies and techniques affect future warfare, the entropy-based model can show the way to conduct warfare more effectively with smaller, more agile forces.'

Two US military services are currently using entropy-based modeling as an assessment tool in looking at future force structures and combat doctrines. 'This model will help them make sound decisions, based on asking the right questions and measuring the right factors,' says Herman. 'Instead of asking 'How many tanks do we need to hit?,' they will be able to ask 'How do we defeat the enemy?' Instead of adding more equipment or manpower, they can figure out how to create greater entropy.'

Booz Allen is working with clients such as the Office of the Secretary of Defense, military services, and other government clients in wargaming, modeling, and simulation.